As of May 28, 2025, Fabryka Farb i Lakierow Sniezka SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $122.15 per share. With the current market price at $83.20, this represents a potential upside of 46.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $104.69 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $122.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 25.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 46.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $798 million in 12-2024 to $1507 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 798 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 907 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 983 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 1004 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1043 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 1079 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 1129 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 1202 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 1307 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 1427 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 1507 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2024 to 9% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 72 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 82 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 89 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 91 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 94 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 98 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 102 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 109 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 118 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 129 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 136 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $72 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 9% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 63 |
| 12-2026 | 58 |
| 12-2027 | 65 |
| 12-2028 | 77 |
| 12-2029 | 89 |
| 12-2030 | 93 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 28 |
| Days Inventory | 101 |
| Days Payables | 83 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 182 | 17 | 81 | 19 | 66 |
| 2026 | 188 | 19 | 87 | 4 | 78 |
| 2027 | 198 | 19 | 89 | 2 | 88 |
| 2028 | 215 | 20 | 93 | 6 | 97 |
| 2029 | 231 | 20 | 96 | 2 | 113 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 104.69 | 25.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 122.15 | 46.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 87.06 | 4.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 107.99 | 29.8% |
Is Fabryka Farb i Lakierow Sniezka SA (SKA.WA) a buy or a sell? Fabryka Farb i Lakierow Sniezka SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Fabryka Farb i Lakierow Sniezka SA (SKA.WA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 46.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $83.20.