As of May 23, 2025, Site Centers Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $78.52 per share. With the current market price at $11.75, this represents a potential upside of 568.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $80.41 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $78.52 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 584.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 568.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 8.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $277 million in 12-2024 to $152 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -5.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 277 | 49% |
| 12-2025 | 104 | -63% |
| 12-2026 | 121 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 128 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 130 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 135 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 140 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 143 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 146 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 149 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 152 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 189% in 12-2024 to 188% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 526 | 189% |
| 12-2025 | 195 | 188% |
| 12-2026 | 227 | 188% |
| 12-2027 | 240 | 188% |
| 12-2028 | 245 | 188% |
| 12-2029 | 254 | 188% |
| 12-2030 | 263 | 188% |
| 12-2031 | 269 | 188% |
| 12-2032 | 275 | 188% |
| 12-2033 | 280 | 188% |
| 12-2034 | 286 | 188% |
with a 5-year average of $256 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 57% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 255 |
| 12-2026 | 227 |
| 12-2027 | 152 |
| 12-2028 | 112 |
| 12-2029 | 71 |
| 12-2030 | 75 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 40 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 348 | 1 | 45 | (11) | 312 |
| 2026 | 470 | 2 | 69 | 2 | 397 |
| 2027 | 409 | 2 | 73 | 0 | 333 |
| 2028 | 375 | 2 | 75 | 1 | 297 |
| 2029 | 342 | 2 | 77 | 0 | 262 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 80.41 | 584.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 78.52 | 568.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 104.99 | 793.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 97.29 | 728.0% |
Is Site Centers Corp (SITC) a buy or a sell? Site Centers Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Site Centers Corp (SITC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 568.3%.
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $11.75.