As of May 24, 2025, Secure Income REIT Plc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $173.95 to $1188.30 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $559.95 | +21.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $533.12 | +15.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1188.30 | +157.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $660.66 | +43.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $173.95 | -62.3% |
Is Secure Income REIT Plc (SIR.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $461.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Secure Income REIT Plc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.71 | 0.89 |
| Cost of equity | 6.8% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.1% | 8.9% |
| Tax rate | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.1% | 9.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $533 | $2,498M | 81.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $560 | $2,585M | 66.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $356 | $1,925M | 75.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $411 | $2,105M | 58.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $98M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.3% - 6.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,059M - $1,615M |
| Net Debt | $774M |
| Equity Value | $284M - $841M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $88 - $260 |
| Selected Fair Value | $173.95 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1491M |
| Enterprise Value | $2265M |
| Trailing P/E | 17.34 |
| Forward P/E | 7.49 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 17.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 671.69% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 12.07% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.63 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $167.99 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $133.28 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $237.66 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $99.10 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $17.40 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $655.42 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Secure Income REIT Plc's weighted average intrinsic value is $655.42, which is approximately 42.2% above the current market price of $461.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Secure Income REIT Plc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.