As of May 24, 2025, Secure Income REIT Plc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $559.95 per share. With the current market price at $461.00, this represents a potential upside of 21.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $533.12 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $559.95 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 15.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 21.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.1% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $115 million in 12-2021 to $166 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 115 | 8% |
| 12-2022 | 117 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 120 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 125 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 131 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 139 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 142 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 148 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 157 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 163 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 166 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 174% in 12-2021 to 170% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 200 | 174% |
| 12-2022 | 199 | 170% |
| 12-2023 | 204 | 170% |
| 12-2024 | 212 | 170% |
| 12-2025 | 223 | 170% |
| 12-2026 | 236 | 170% |
| 12-2027 | 241 | 170% |
| 12-2028 | 252 | 170% |
| 12-2029 | 267 | 170% |
| 12-2030 | 276 | 170% |
| 12-2031 | 282 | 170% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 0 |
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 26 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 291 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 107 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 99 |
| 2023 | 110 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 106 |
| 2024 | 114 | 2 | 0 | (3) | 116 |
| 2025 | 120 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 116 |
| 2026 | 127 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 125 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 533.12 | 15.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 559.95 | 21.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 355.72 | -22.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 411.46 | -10.7% |
Is Secure Income REIT Plc (SIR.L) a buy or a sell? Secure Income REIT Plc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Secure Income REIT Plc (SIR.L) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 21.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $461.00.