As of June 2, 2025, Sienna Senior Living Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.99 to $24.01 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $24.01 | +28.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $19.91 | +6.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $10.89 | -41.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $7.44 | -60.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $4.99 | -73.2% |
Is Sienna Senior Living Inc (SIA.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $18.62, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Sienna Senior Living Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.54 | 0.74 |
| Cost of equity | 5.9% | 8.7% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 8.4% |
| Tax rate | 27.0% | 28.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.8% | 7.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $20 | $2,677M | 82.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $24 | $3,054M | 68.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $17 | $2,440M | 80.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $22 | $2,873M | 66.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $77M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 4.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,002M - $1,602M |
| Net Debt | $842M |
| Equity Value | $159M - $760M |
| Outstanding Shares | 92M |
| Fair Value | $2 - $8 |
| Selected Fair Value | $4.99 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1715M |
| Enterprise Value | $2557M |
| Trailing P/E | 49.76 |
| Forward P/E | 39.45 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 403.74% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.30% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.59 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $7.20 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $4.98 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $2.18 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.12 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.50 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $15.97 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Sienna Senior Living Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $15.97, which is approximately 14.2% below the current market price of $18.62.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Sienna Senior Living Inc is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.