As of June 5, 2025, Shell PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of 26.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 20.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 26.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $284312 million in 12-2024 to $385517 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 284312 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 289801 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 291175 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 309984 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 316184 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 326456 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 342566 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 363281 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 370547 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 377958 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 385517 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 12-2024 to 7% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 16521 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 20175 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 20271 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 21580 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 22012 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 22727 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 23848 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 25290 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 25796 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 26312 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 26838 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $20156 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 7% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 21074 |
| 12-2026 | 21529 |
| 12-2027 | 21539 |
| 12-2028 | 21561 |
| 12-2029 | 22412 |
| 12-2030 | 23183 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 41 |
| Days Inventory | 40 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 38214 | 7744 | 15882 | (263) | 14851 |
| 2026 | 51549 | 10374 | 21276 | 571 | 19328 |
| 2027 | 53498 | 11044 | 22651 | 1169 | 18635 |
| 2028 | 54159 | 11265 | 23104 | 295 | 19496 |
| 2029 | 56069 | 11631 | 23854 | 788 | 19796 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 20.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 26.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1845.87 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2216.27 | +Inf% |
Is Shell PLC (SHEL.L) a buy or a sell? Shell PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Shell PLC (SHEL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 26.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.