As of June 17, 2025, Surge Energy Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $6.05, this represents a potential upside of -184.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -222.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -184.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $542 million in 12-2024 to $1045 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 542 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 592 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 616 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 657 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 699 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 765 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 804 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 868 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 909 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 972 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 1045 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -10% in 12-2024 to -3% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (54) | -10% |
| 12-2025 | (51) | -9% |
| 12-2026 | (45) | -7% |
| 12-2027 | (41) | -6% |
| 12-2028 | (35) | -5% |
| 12-2029 | (31) | -4% |
| 12-2030 | (31) | -4% |
| 12-2031 | (31) | -4% |
| 12-2032 | (31) | -3% |
| 12-2033 | (31) | -3% |
| 12-2034 | (31) | -3% |
with a 5-year average of $141 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 33% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 170 |
| 12-2026 | 190 |
| 12-2027 | 200 |
| 12-2028 | 210 |
| 12-2029 | 222 |
| 12-2030 | 237 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 38 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 107 | (12) | 148 | 3 | (33) |
| 2026 | 171 | (14) | 206 | 1 | (21) |
| 2027 | 190 | (13) | 219 | 6 | (23) |
| 2028 | 210 | (11) | 234 | 4 | (16) |
| 2029 | 233 | (9) | 256 | 7 | (20) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -222.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -184.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.27 | -79.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.03 | -82.9% |
Is Surge Energy Inc (SGY.TO) a buy or a sell? Surge Energy Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Surge Energy Inc (SGY.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -184.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $6.05.