As of September 26, 2025, Signify Health Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $30.49, this represents a potential upside of -126.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -139.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -126.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $806 million in 12-2022 to $2180 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 806 | 23% |
| 12-2023 | 849 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 969 | 14% |
| 12-2025 | 1070 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 1212 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 1363 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 1512 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 1704 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 1873 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 2025 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 2180 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -16% in 12-2022 to -2% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (130) | -16% |
| 12-2023 | (115) | -14% |
| 12-2024 | (108) | -11% |
| 12-2025 | (94) | -9% |
| 12-2026 | (79) | -7% |
| 12-2027 | (60) | -4% |
| 12-2028 | (60) | -4% |
| 12-2029 | (61) | -4% |
| 12-2030 | (60) | -3% |
| 12-2031 | (57) | -3% |
| 12-2032 | (52) | -2% |
with a 5-year average of $25 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 29 |
| 12-2024 | 32 |
| 12-2025 | 35 |
| 12-2026 | 41 |
| 12-2027 | 47 |
| 12-2028 | 52 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 143 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 4 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (70) | (5) | 36 | 154 | (254) |
| 2024 | (56) | (5) | 41 | 14 | (106) |
| 2025 | (36) | (4) | 46 | (0) | (77) |
| 2026 | (11) | (4) | 52 | 87 | (146) |
| 2027 | 19 | (3) | 58 | 39 | (75) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -139.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -126.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Signify Health Inc (SGFY) a buy or a sell? Signify Health Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Signify Health Inc (SGFY) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -126.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $30.49.