As of June 18, 2025, Safello Group AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.34 to $13.29 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $9.84 | +56.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $8.62 | +37.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $4.34 | -30.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $13.29 | +111.7% |
Is Safello Group AB (SFL.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $6.28, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Safello Group AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.77 | 0.87 |
| Cost of equity | 6.5% | 8.8% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1 | 1 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.8% | 6.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $9 | $153M | 80.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $10 | $178M | 67.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $17 | $318M | 90.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $17 | $334M | 82.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $13M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 4.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $218M - $280M |
| Net Debt | $(23)M |
| Equity Value | $241M - $303M |
| Outstanding Shares | 20M |
| Fair Value | $12 - $15 |
| Selected Fair Value | $13.29 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $128M |
| Enterprise Value | $106M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 18.84 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 37.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 62.96% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.80 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $2.95 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $2.15 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $0.87 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $1.33 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $8.59 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Safello Group AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $8.59, which is approximately 36.9% above the current market price of $6.28.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Safello Group AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.