What is SFE.L's Intrinsic value?

Safestyle UK PLC (SFE.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Safestyle UK PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.80 to $540.72 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $131.38 +40957.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $49.69 +15427.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1.80 +461.0%
Earnings Power Value $540.72 +168875.5%

Is Safestyle UK PLC (SFE.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.32, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Safestyle UK PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.84 2.28
Cost of equity 9.0% 20.9%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 18.1% 19.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 31.77 31.77
After-tax WACC 4.2% 4.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 4.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $154 (FY01-2023) to $285 (FY01-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -4% to 1%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $50 $79M 98.6%
10-Year Growth $131 $193M 88.6%
5-Year EBITDA $6 $19M 94.3%
10-Year EBITDA $32 $55M 60.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 15.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $1.80 (461.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 20.9% (Low) to 9.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(25) to $(106)
  • Selected fair value: $-65.53 (-20577.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $33M
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.6% - 4.2%
Enterprise Value $733M - $789M
Net Debt $10M
Equity Value $723M - $778M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $521 - $561
Selected Fair Value $540.72

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $0M
Enterprise Value $11M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.55
Current Dividend Yield 15639.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -45.86%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 31.77

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $39.41
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $12.42
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $0.36
Earnings Power Value 12% $54.07
Weighted Average 100% $125.02

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Safestyle UK PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $125.02, which is approximately 38969.1% above the current market price of $0.32.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-4% to 1% margin)

Given these factors, we believe Safestyle UK PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.