As of June 12, 2026, Sesa SpA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $124.63 per share. With the current market price at $98.00, this represents a potential upside of 27.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $101.19 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $124.63 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 3.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 27.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.6% - 11.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3215 million in 04-2025 to $6620 million by 04-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2025 | 3215 | 2% |
| 04-2026 | 3606 | 12% |
| 04-2027 | 3799 | 5% |
| 04-2028 | 3996 | 5% |
| 04-2029 | 4450 | 11% |
| 04-2030 | 4867 | 9% |
| 04-2031 | 5173 | 6% |
| 04-2032 | 5477 | 6% |
| 04-2033 | 5751 | 5% |
| 04-2034 | 6304 | 10% |
| 04-2035 | 6620 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 04-2025 to 2% by 04-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2025 | 67 | 2% |
| 04-2026 | 78 | 2% |
| 04-2027 | 83 | 2% |
| 04-2028 | 87 | 2% |
| 04-2029 | 97 | 2% |
| 04-2030 | 106 | 2% |
| 04-2031 | 112 | 2% |
| 04-2032 | 119 | 2% |
| 04-2033 | 125 | 2% |
| 04-2034 | 137 | 2% |
| 04-2035 | 144 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $21 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2026 | 23 |
| 04-2027 | 25 |
| 04-2028 | 28 |
| 04-2029 | 29 |
| 04-2030 | 32 |
| 04-2031 | 35 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 67 |
| Days Inventory | 24 |
| Days Payables | 96 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2026 | 43 | 8 | 7 | (2) | 30 |
| 2027 | 183 | 35 | 30 | 6 | 112 |
| 2028 | 193 | 37 | 31 | 19 | 106 |
| 2029 | 213 | 41 | 35 | 12 | 126 |
| 2030 | 234 | 45 | 38 | 19 | 132 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 101.19 | 3.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 124.63 | 27.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 94.81 | -3.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 116.31 | 18.7% |
Is Sesa SpA (SES.MI) a buy or a sell? Sesa SpA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Sesa SpA (SES.MI) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 27.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $98.00.