What is SENS.L's DCF valuation?

Sensyne Health PLC (SENS.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of July 2, 2025, Sensyne Health PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.35, this represents a potential upside of -7674502.9%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -1950172.9%
Potential Upside (10-year) -7674502.9%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.5% - 9.1%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $9 million in 04-2021 to $1611 million by 04-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 68.0%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
04-2021 9 344%
04-2022 30 228%
04-2023 63 110%
04-2024 112 79%
04-2025 182 63%
04-2026 285 57%
04-2027 434 52%
04-2028 629 45%
04-2029 877 39%
04-2030 1204 37%
04-2031 1611 34%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -302% in 04-2021 to -298% by 04-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
04-2021 (28) -302%
04-2022 (91) -306%
04-2023 (190) -304%
04-2024 (338) -302%
04-2025 (547) -301%
04-2026 (853) -299%
04-2027 (1,300) -299%
04-2028 (1,879) -299%
04-2029 (2,618) -299%
04-2030 (3,593) -298%
04-2031 (4,802) -298%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 639% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
04-2022 40
04-2023 120
04-2024 263
04-2025 495
04-2026 858
04-2027 1375

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 195
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 1,535

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2022 (25) (1) 95 (14) (106)
2023 (69) (3) 400 (4) (461)
2024 (74) (6) 714 (2) (780)
2025 (51) (9) 1163 (46) (1,157)
2026 8 (15) 1822 (9) (1,790)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.5% - 9.1%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 7.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1950172.9%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -7674502.9%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(24,352)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(95,820)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Sensyne Health PLC (SENS.L) a buy or a sell? Sensyne Health PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Sensyne Health PLC (SENS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -7674502.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -302% to -298%)
  • Steady revenue growth (68.0% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.35.