What is SDT.PA's Intrinsic value?

Visiodent SA (SDT.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Visiodent SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.48 to $5.58 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $5.02 +67.5%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $3.10 +3.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.04 +1.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $5.58 +86.1%
Earnings Power Value $0.48 -84.0%

Is Visiodent SA (SDT.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $3.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Visiodent SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.6% 3.1%
Equity market risk premium 5.2% 6.2%
Adjusted beta 0.81 1.01
Cost of equity 6.8% 9.9%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 29.8% 31.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.19 0.19
After-tax WACC 6.3% 8.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $9 (FY12-2020) to $16 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 7% to 11%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 15% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $3 $13M 83.7%
10-Year Growth $5 $22M 72.3%
5-Year EBITDA $4 $19M 88.5%
10-Year EBITDA $5 $22M 73.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $3.04 (1.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.9% (Low) to 6.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $2 to $9
  • Selected fair value: $5.58 (86.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $0M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.8% - 6.3%
Enterprise Value $1M - $1M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $2M - $2M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $0 - $1
Selected Fair Value $0.48

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $13M
Enterprise Value $13M
Trailing P/E 10.96
Forward P/E 33.33
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.20
Current Dividend Yield 333.33%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.19

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $1.51
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $0.77
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.61
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.84
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.05
Weighted Average 100% $3.77

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Visiodent SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $3.77, which is approximately 25.8% above the current market price of $3.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (7% to 11% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.19)

Given these factors, we believe Visiodent SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.