As of May 22, 2025, Superdry PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.29, this represents a potential upside of -1206.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1719.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1206.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 12.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $622 million in 04-2023 to $621 million by 04-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -0.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2023 | 622 | 2% |
| 04-2024 | 476 | -23% |
| 04-2025 | 489 | 3% |
| 04-2026 | 507 | 4% |
| 04-2027 | 517 | 2% |
| 04-2028 | 528 | 2% |
| 04-2029 | 545 | 3% |
| 04-2030 | 556 | 2% |
| 04-2031 | 567 | 2% |
| 04-2032 | 589 | 4% |
| 04-2033 | 621 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -24% in 04-2023 to 0% by 04-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2023 | (148) | -24% |
| 04-2024 | (42) | -9% |
| 04-2025 | (34) | -7% |
| 04-2026 | (26) | -5% |
| 04-2027 | (18) | -3% |
| 04-2028 | (10) | -2% |
| 04-2029 | (8) | -2% |
| 04-2030 | (7) | -1% |
| 04-2031 | (5) | -1% |
| 04-2032 | (4) | -1% |
| 04-2033 | (2) | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $17 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 14 |
| 04-2025 | 14 |
| 04-2026 | 14 |
| 04-2027 | 13 |
| 04-2028 | 13 |
| 04-2029 | 13 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 31 |
| Days Inventory | 177 |
| Days Payables | 89 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (15) | (3) | 6 | 0 | (18) |
| 2025 | (20) | (6) | 12 | (7) | (20) |
| 2026 | (11) | (4) | 13 | (2) | (17) |
| 2027 | (2) | (3) | 13 | 4 | (16) |
| 2028 | 7 | (2) | 13 | (2) | (2) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1719.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1206.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Superdry PLC (SDRY.L) a buy or a sell? Superdry PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Superdry PLC (SDRY.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1206.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.29.