What is SDR.L's Intrinsic value?

Schroders PLC (SDR.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Schroders PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $225.17 to $698.14 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $264.54 -22.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $252.52 -25.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $225.17 -34.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $237.53 -30.3%
Earnings Power Value $698.14 +104.7%

Is Schroders PLC (SDR.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $341.00, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Schroders PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.19 1.45
Cost of equity 11.1% 15.1%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 18.0% 19.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 7.6% 9.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $2,970 (FY12-2024) to $3,625 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 15% to 15%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $253 $5,268M 74.1%
10-Year Growth $265 $5,457M 56.9%
5-Year EBITDA $254 $5,295M 74.3%
10-Year EBITDA $264 $5,456M 56.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 81.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 13.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $225.17 (-34.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 15.1% (Low) to 11.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $141 to $334
  • Selected fair value: $237.53 (-30.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,044M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.6% - 7.6%
Enterprise Value $10,878M - $13,696M
Net Debt $1,290M
Equity Value $9,587M - $12,406M
Outstanding Shares 16M
Fair Value $609 - $788
Selected Fair Value $698.14

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $5371M
Enterprise Value $6662M
Trailing P/E 12.88
Forward P/E 13.34
Trailing EV/EBITDA 11.15
Current Dividend Yield 635.05%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 2.27%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.00

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $79.36
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $63.13
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $45.03
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $35.63
Earnings Power Value 10% $69.81
Weighted Average 100% $292.97

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Schroders PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $292.97, which is approximately 14.1% below the current market price of $341.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (15% to 15% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 2.27%

Given these factors, we believe Schroders PLC is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.