As of May 23, 2025, Scapa Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $214.50, this represents a potential upside of -114.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -148.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -114.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $321 million in 03-2020 to $345 million by 03-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2020 | 321 | 3% |
| 03-2021 | 243 | -24% |
| 03-2022 | 248 | 2% |
| 03-2023 | 262 | 5% |
| 03-2024 | 267 | 2% |
| 03-2025 | 273 | 2% |
| 03-2026 | 288 | 5% |
| 03-2027 | 303 | 5% |
| 03-2028 | 332 | 9% |
| 03-2029 | 339 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 345 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -15% in 03-2020 to 1% by 03-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2020 | (50) | -15% |
| 03-2021 | (25) | -10% |
| 03-2022 | (20) | -8% |
| 03-2023 | (15) | -6% |
| 03-2024 | (9) | -3% |
| 03-2025 | (4) | -1% |
| 03-2026 | (3) | -1% |
| 03-2027 | (2) | 0% |
| 03-2028 | (0) | 0% |
| 03-2029 | 1 | 0% |
| 03-2030 | 2 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $14 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2021 | 14 |
| 03-2022 | 15 |
| 03-2023 | 16 |
| 03-2024 | 13 |
| 03-2025 | 12 |
| 03-2026 | 12 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 68 |
| Days Inventory | 79 |
| Days Payables | 83 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | (7) | (3) | 6 | (6) | (4) |
| 2022 | (6) | (5) | 11 | 2 | (16) |
| 2023 | 1 | (3) | 12 | 1 | (9) |
| 2024 | 5 | (2) | 12 | 2 | (7) |
| 2025 | 11 | (1) | 13 | 1 | (2) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -148.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -114.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Scapa Group PLC (SCPA.L) a buy or a sell? Scapa Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Scapa Group PLC (SCPA.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -114.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $214.50.