As of April 24, 2026, Starbucks Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $169.60 per share. With the current market price at $99.54, this represents a potential upside of 70.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $121.39 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $169.60 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 21.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 70.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 8.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $37184 million in 09-2025 to $62394 million by 09-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 37184 | 3% |
| 09-2026 | 39231 | 6% |
| 09-2027 | 40643 | 4% |
| 09-2028 | 44126 | 9% |
| 09-2029 | 45008 | 2% |
| 09-2030 | 48524 | 8% |
| 09-2031 | 52338 | 8% |
| 09-2032 | 54289 | 4% |
| 09-2033 | 57431 | 6% |
| 09-2034 | 60717 | 6% |
| 09-2035 | 62394 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 09-2025 to 21% by 09-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 1857 | 5% |
| 09-2026 | 3172 | 8% |
| 09-2027 | 4421 | 11% |
| 09-2028 | 5970 | 14% |
| 09-2029 | 7223 | 16% |
| 09-2030 | 8948 | 18% |
| 09-2031 | 9890 | 19% |
| 09-2032 | 10503 | 19% |
| 09-2033 | 11366 | 20% |
| 09-2034 | 12285 | 20% |
| 09-2035 | 12896 | 21% |
with a 5-year average of $2146 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2026 | 2340 |
| 09-2027 | 2478 |
| 09-2028 | 2561 |
| 09-2029 | 2566 |
| 09-2030 | 2709 |
| 09-2031 | 2872 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 12 |
| Days Inventory | 26 |
| Days Payables | 22 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 5015 | 737 | 1832 | (14) | 2460 |
| 2027 | 8466 | 1369 | 2531 | 48 | 4519 |
| 2028 | 10595 | 1849 | 2747 | 154 | 5844 |
| 2029 | 12245 | 2237 | 2802 | 1 | 7205 |
| 2030 | 14665 | 2771 | 3021 | 130 | 8743 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 121.39 | 21.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 169.60 | 70.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 138.96 | 39.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 182.51 | 83.4% |
Is Starbucks Corp (SBUX) a buy or a sell? Starbucks Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Starbucks Corp (SBUX) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 70.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $99.54.