What is SBR.TO's DCF valuation?

Silver Bear Resources Inc (SBR.TO) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Silver Bear Resources Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.05, this represents a potential upside of -1627.1%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -1596.9%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1627.1%
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.9% - 24.5%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $10 million in 12-2024 to $14 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 10 41%
12-2025 11 7%
12-2026 11 3%
12-2027 12 7%
12-2028 12 2%
12-2029 12 2%
12-2030 13 3%
12-2031 13 2%
12-2032 13 5%
12-2033 14 2%
12-2034 14 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -669% in 12-2024 to -635% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 (67) -669%
12-2025 (71) -662%
12-2026 (72) -656%
12-2027 (77) -650%
12-2028 (77) -645%
12-2029 (78) -639%
12-2030 (80) -638%
12-2031 (82) -638%
12-2032 (86) -637%
12-2033 (87) -636%
12-2034 (89) -635%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $11 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 68% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 11
12-2026 11
12-2027 11
12-2028 11
12-2029 8
12-2030 8

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 0
Days Inventory 593
Days Payables 43

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
3M/2025 0 (0) 2 (3) 1
2026 1 (0) 7 4 (11)
2027 1 (0) 8 1 (8)
2028 1 (0) 8 (3) (4)
2029 (1) (0) 8 0 (10)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 4.9% - 24.5%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.7%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 24.2x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1596.9%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1627.1%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(63)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(74)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Silver Bear Resources Inc (SBR.TO) a buy or a sell? Silver Bear Resources Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Silver Bear Resources Inc (SBR.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1627.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -669% to -635%)
  • Steady revenue growth (3.4% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.05.