What is SBI.L's Intrinsic value?

Sourcebio International PLC (SBI.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Sourcebio International PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $88.45 to $430.09 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $157.30 +36.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $156.57 +36.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $88.45 -23.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $161.51 +40.4%
Earnings Power Value $430.09 +274.0%

Is Sourcebio International PLC (SBI.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $115.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Sourcebio International PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.72 1
Cost of equity 8.3% 12.0%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.6%
Tax rate 1.1% 3.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.18 0.18
After-tax WACC 7.6% 10.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $92 (FY12-2021) to $39 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 18% to 22%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $157 $98M 64.2%
10-Year Growth $157 $99M 42.0%
5-Year EBITDA $147 $93M 61.9%
10-Year EBITDA $152 $96M 40.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $88.45 (-23.1% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.0% (Low) to 8.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $104 to $219
  • Selected fair value: $161.51 (40.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $24M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.8% - 7.6%
Enterprise Value $223M - $315M
Net Debt $1M
Equity Value $222M - $314M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $356 - $504
Selected Fair Value $430.09

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $72M
Enterprise Value $73M
Trailing P/E 6.46
Forward P/E 5.60
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.85
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.18

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $47.19
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $39.14
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $17.69
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $24.23
Earnings Power Value 10% $43.01
Weighted Average 100% $171.26

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Sourcebio International PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $171.26, which is approximately 48.9% above the current market price of $115.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (18% to 22% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.18)

Given these factors, we believe Sourcebio International PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.