What is SBER.ME's Intrinsic value?

Sberbank Rossii PAO (SBER.ME) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 13, 2025, Sberbank Rossii PAO's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $244.93 to $319.30 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $319.30 +3.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $244.93 -20.4%

Is Sberbank Rossii PAO (SBER.ME) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $307.53, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Sberbank Rossii PAO's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 15.8% 16.3%
Equity market risk premium 11.7% 12.7%
Adjusted beta 0.4 0.42
Cost of equity 20.4% 22.1%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 21.4% 23.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.19 0.19
After-tax WACC 17.8% 19.2%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 21.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $319.30 (3.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 22.1% (Low) to 20.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $190 to $300
  • Selected fair value: $244.93 (-20.4% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $6946150M
Enterprise Value $7950750M
Trailing P/E 5.78
Forward P/E 3.95
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 579.69%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 32.84%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.19

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $63.86
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $36.74
Weighted Average 100% $287.43

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Sberbank Rossii PAO's weighted average intrinsic value is $287.43, which is approximately 6.5% below the current market price of $307.53.

Key investment considerations:

  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.19)
  • Historical dividend growth of 32.84%

Given these factors, we believe Sberbank Rossii PAO is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.