As of June 14, 2025, Sanofi SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $50.16 to $117.24 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $66.25 | -23.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $61.50 | -29.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $50.16 | -42.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $79.60 | -8.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $117.24 | +35.1% |
Is Sanofi SA (SAN.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $86.80, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Sanofi SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| Cost of equity | 7.8% | 10.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.1% | 9.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $61 | $88,560M | 74.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $66 | $94,400M | 55.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $63 | $91,009M | 75.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $69 | $97,602M | 56.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $12,913M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.7% - 7.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $132,995M - $180,993M |
| Net Debt | $13,056M |
| Equity Value | $119,939M - $167,937M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1,228M |
| Fair Value | $98 - $137 |
| Selected Fair Value | $117.24 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $106570M |
| Enterprise Value | $119626M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.34 |
| Forward P/E | 19.05 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.15 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 443.48% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.76% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.17 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $19.88 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $15.37 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $10.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $11.94 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $11.72 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $68.95 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Sanofi SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $68.95, which is approximately 20.6% below the current market price of $86.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Sanofi SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.