As of May 22, 2025, SailPoint Technologies Holdings Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $17.18, this represents a potential upside of -184.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -175.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -184.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $862 million in 01-2025 to $3701 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 862 | 23% |
| 01-2026 | 1062 | 23% |
| 01-2027 | 1291 | 22% |
| 01-2028 | 1564 | 21% |
| 01-2029 | 1803 | 15% |
| 01-2030 | 2087 | 16% |
| 01-2031 | 2397 | 15% |
| 01-2032 | 2694 | 12% |
| 01-2033 | 3065 | 14% |
| 01-2034 | 3373 | 10% |
| 01-2035 | 3701 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -37% in 01-2025 to -29% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | (316) | -37% |
| 01-2026 | (377) | -35% |
| 01-2027 | (439) | -34% |
| 01-2028 | (511) | -33% |
| 01-2029 | (566) | -31% |
| 01-2030 | (629) | -30% |
| 01-2031 | (718) | -30% |
| 01-2032 | (800) | -30% |
| 01-2033 | (903) | -29% |
| 01-2034 | (987) | -29% |
| 01-2035 | (1,074) | -29% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 8 |
| 01-2027 | 10 |
| 01-2028 | 12 |
| 01-2029 | 15 |
| 01-2030 | 17 |
| 01-2031 | 19 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 134 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 8 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | (212) | (69) | 11 | 74 | (229) |
| 2027 | (236) | (80) | 14 | 85 | (255) |
| 2028 | (261) | (94) | 17 | 97 | (281) |
| 2029 | (273) | (104) | 19 | 88 | (276) |
| 2030 | (286) | (115) | 22 | 104 | (297) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -175.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -184.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is SailPoint Technologies Holdings Inc (SAIL) a buy or a sell? SailPoint Technologies Holdings Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, SailPoint Technologies Holdings Inc (SAIL) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -184.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $17.18.