What is SAE.L's Intrinsic value?

SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd (SAE.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $23.27 to $23.27 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $23.27 +869.7%

Is SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd (SAE.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.49 0.68
Cost of equity 6.9% 9.8%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.5%
Tax rate 1.6% 2.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 3.09 3.09
After-tax WACC 4.7% 6.4%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $13M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.4% - 4.7%
Enterprise Value $202M - $278M
Net Debt $54M
Equity Value $147M - $223M
Outstanding Shares 8M
Fair Value $19 - $29
Selected Fair Value $23.27

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $19M
Enterprise Value $19M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.40
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 3.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $2.33
Weighted Average 100% $23.27

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd's intrinsic value is $23.27, which is approximately 869.7% above the current market price of $2.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-175% to -86% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe SIMEC Atlantis Energy Ltd is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.