As of June 17, 2025, Rayonier Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $11.22 to $49.71 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $46.98 | +100.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $34.26 | +46.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $29.20 | +24.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $49.71 | +112.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $11.22 | -52.1% |
Is Rayonier Inc (RYN) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $23.43, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Rayonier Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Cost of equity | 6.7% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 5.0% | 6.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 7.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $34 | $6,166M | 82.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $47 | $8,146M | 72.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $29 | $5,297M | 79.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $39 | $6,921M | 67.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $173M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,288M - $2,863M |
| Net Debt | $828M |
| Equity Value | $1,460M - $2,035M |
| Outstanding Shares | 156M |
| Fair Value | $9 - $13 |
| Selected Fair Value | $11.22 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3650M |
| Enterprise Value | $4478M |
| Trailing P/E | 10.30 |
| Forward P/E | 20.20 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 654.12% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 8.21% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.30 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $14.09 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $8.57 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $5.84 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $7.46 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.12 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $37.08 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Rayonier Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $37.08, which is approximately 58.3% above the current market price of $23.43.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Rayonier Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.