As of May 27, 2025, Renewi PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $866.00, this represents a potential upside of 26.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 44.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 26.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1689 million in 03-2024 to $2000 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 1689 | 11% |
| 03-2025 | 1576 | -7% |
| 03-2026 | 1611 | 2% |
| 03-2027 | 1649 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 1682 | 2% |
| 03-2029 | 1715 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 1783 | 4% |
| 03-2031 | 1857 | 4% |
| 03-2032 | 1922 | 3% |
| 03-2033 | 1960 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 2000 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 03-2024 to 3% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 45 | 3% |
| 03-2025 | 42 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 43 | 3% |
| 03-2027 | 44 | 3% |
| 03-2028 | 45 | 3% |
| 03-2029 | 46 | 3% |
| 03-2030 | 48 | 3% |
| 03-2031 | 50 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 51 | 3% |
| 03-2033 | 52 | 3% |
| 03-2034 | 54 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $91 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 91 |
| 03-2026 | 95 |
| 03-2027 | 94 |
| 03-2028 | 86 |
| 03-2029 | 84 |
| 03-2030 | 86 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 48 |
| Days Inventory | 6 |
| Days Payables | 33 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 87 | 7 | 40 | 8 | 31 |
| 2026 | 179 | 14 | 82 | (1) | 84 |
| 2027 | 181 | 15 | 84 | (3) | 85 |
| 2028 | 175 | 15 | 86 | 7 | 67 |
| 2029 | 174 | 15 | 88 | 1 | 71 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 44.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 26.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 462.97 | -46.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 554.11 | -36.0% |
Is Renewi PLC (RWI.L) a buy or a sell? Renewi PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Renewi PLC (RWI.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 26.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $866.00.