What is RSW.L's Intrinsic value?

Renishaw PLC (RSW.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 16, 2025, Renishaw PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1174.83 to $1981.98 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1981.98 -26.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1756.17 -35.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1733.46 -35.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1239.30 -54.2%
Earnings Power Value $1174.83 -56.6%

Is Renishaw PLC (RSW.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2705.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Renishaw PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.08 1.12
Cost of equity 10.4% 12.8%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.6%
Tax rate 20.0% 20.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.01 0.01
After-tax WACC 10.4% 12.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 11.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $691 (FY06-2024) to $1,131 (FY06-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 14% to 18%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 9% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,756 $1,173M 68.0%
10-Year Growth $1,982 $1,333M 45.4%
5-Year EBITDA $3,591 $2,474M 84.8%
10-Year EBITDA $3,308 $2,273M 68.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 56.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $1733.46 (-35.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.8% (Low) to 10.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $815 to $1,664
  • Selected fair value: $1239.30 (-54.2% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $87M
Discount Rate (WACC) 12.7% - 10.4%
Enterprise Value $683M - $838M
Net Debt $(73)M
Equity Value $755M - $911M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $1,065 - $1,284
Selected Fair Value $1174.83

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1918M
Enterprise Value $1845M
Trailing P/E 19.64
Forward P/E 17.19
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.60
Current Dividend Yield 288.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 13.43%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $594.59
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $439.04
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $346.69
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $185.90
Earnings Power Value 10% $117.48
Weighted Average 100% $1683.71

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Renishaw PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1683.71, which is approximately 37.8% below the current market price of $2705.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (14% to 18% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.01)
  • Historical dividend growth of 13.43%

Given these factors, we believe Renishaw PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.