As of May 23, 2025, Rogers Sugar Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.25 to $8.06 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $8.06 | +44.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $7.23 | +29.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $5.64 | +0.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $5.33 | -4.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $4.25 | -24.1% |
Is Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $5.60, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Rogers Sugar Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Cost of equity | 6.5% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.3% | 6.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $7 | $1,358M | 77.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $8 | $1,464M | 60.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $6 | $1,255M | 75.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $7 | $1,379M | 58.0% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $58M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 5.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $858M - $1,093M |
| Net Debt | $432M |
| Equity Value | $427M - $661M |
| Outstanding Shares | 128M |
| Fair Value | $3 - $5 |
| Selected Fair Value | $4.25 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $717M |
| Enterprise Value | $1149M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.88 |
| Forward P/E | 13.04 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 614.55% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 2.84% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.53 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $2.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1.81 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $1.13 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.80 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.42 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $6.58 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Rogers Sugar Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $6.58, which is approximately 17.5% above the current market price of $5.60.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Rogers Sugar Inc is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.