As of May 23, 2025, Rogers Sugar Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $8.06 per share. With the current market price at $5.60, this represents a potential upside of 44.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $7.23 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $8.06 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 29.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 44.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1232 million in 09-2024 to $1584 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 1232 | 12% |
| 09-2025 | 1262 | 2% |
| 09-2026 | 1250 | -1% |
| 09-2027 | 1315 | 5% |
| 09-2028 | 1341 | 2% |
| 09-2029 | 1388 | 3% |
| 09-2030 | 1433 | 3% |
| 09-2031 | 1462 | 2% |
| 09-2032 | 1522 | 4% |
| 09-2033 | 1553 | 2% |
| 09-2034 | 1584 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 09-2024 to 4% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 54 | 4% |
| 09-2025 | 55 | 4% |
| 09-2026 | 54 | 4% |
| 09-2027 | 57 | 4% |
| 09-2028 | 58 | 4% |
| 09-2029 | 60 | 4% |
| 09-2030 | 62 | 4% |
| 09-2031 | 64 | 4% |
| 09-2032 | 66 | 4% |
| 09-2033 | 68 | 4% |
| 09-2034 | 69 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $35 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 38 |
| 09-2026 | 42 |
| 09-2027 | 46 |
| 09-2028 | 48 |
| 09-2029 | 44 |
| 09-2030 | 45 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 36 |
| Days Inventory | 102 |
| Days Payables | 54 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 103 | 15 | 32 | 17 | 40 |
| 2026 | 140 | 20 | 42 | (2) | 81 |
| 2027 | 150 | 21 | 44 | 8 | 77 |
| 2028 | 154 | 21 | 45 | 9 | 78 |
| 2029 | 153 | 22 | 46 | 9 | 75 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.23 | 29.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 8.06 | 44.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 6.43 | 14.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.40 | 32.1% |
Is Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI.TO) a buy or a sell? Rogers Sugar Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 44.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $5.60.