What is RPT's Intrinsic value?

RPT Realty (RPT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 31, 2025, RPT Realty's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $33.88 to $1240.81 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1240.81 +45350.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1132.14 +41370.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $260.26 +9433.5%
Earnings Power Value $33.88 +1141.2%

Is RPT Realty (RPT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.73, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate RPT Realty's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.78 3.09
Cost of equity 12.1% 22.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 6.1%
Tax rate 0.5% 0.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 5.96 5.96
After-tax WACC 5.1% 8.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $(7) (FY12-2024) to $305 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 1363% to 1353%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,132 $52,084M 77.8%
10-Year Growth $1,241 $57,020M 58.9%
5-Year EBITDA $996 $45,896M 74.8%
10-Year EBITDA $1,128 $51,910M 54.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 17.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $260.26 (9433.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 22.2% (Low) to 12.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(6) to $(16)
  • Selected fair value: $-11.41 (-518.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $140M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.4% - 5.1%
Enterprise Value $1,674M - $2,721M
Net Debt $658M
Equity Value $1,015M - $2,063M
Outstanding Shares 45M
Fair Value $22 - $45
Selected Fair Value $33.88

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $124M
Enterprise Value $782M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.34
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.55
Current Dividend Yield 753.71%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -10.07%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 5.96

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $372.24
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $283.03
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $52.05
Earnings Power Value 12% $3.39
Weighted Average 100% $836.14

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, RPT Realty's weighted average intrinsic value is $836.14, which is approximately 30527.7% above the current market price of $2.73.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (1363% to 1353% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe RPT Realty is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.