As of May 29, 2025, Roxgold Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.04 to $2.84 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $2.84 | +49.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $0.04 | -97.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $2.64 | +38.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $2.09 | +10.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1.50 | -20.9% |
Is Roxgold Inc (ROXG.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $1.90, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Roxgold Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.4% | 3.9% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| Cost of equity | 7.7% | 10.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.2% |
| Tax rate | 28.1% | 34.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.3% | 10.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $0 | $2M | 4011.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $2 | $821M | 88.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $3 | $1,051M | 106.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $4 | $1,337M | 93.0% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $36M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% - 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $362M - $497M |
| Net Debt | $(11)M |
| Equity Value | $373M - $508M |
| Outstanding Shares | 375M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $1 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $712M |
| Enterprise Value | $698M |
| Trailing P/E | 23.16 |
| Forward P/E | 16.05 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.70 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.09 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.85 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.01 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.53 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.31 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.15 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $1.85 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Roxgold Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $1.85, which is approximately 2.4% below the current market price of $1.90.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Roxgold Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.