As of April 3, 2026, Roche Holding AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $250.79 to $342.33 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $342.33 | +7.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $331.17 | +4.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $296.22 | -6.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $288.62 | -9.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $250.79 | -21.1% |
Is Roche Holding AG (ROG.SW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $318.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Roche Holding AG's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Cost of equity | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 8.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $331 | $299,636M | 79.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $342 | $308,665M | 62.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $250 | $202,206M | 70.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $288 | $232,985M | 50.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $16,032M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $200,890M - $268,292M |
| Net Debt | $31,636M |
| Equity Value | $169,254M - $236,656M |
| Outstanding Shares | 809M |
| Fair Value | $209 - $292 |
| Selected Fair Value | $250.79 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $257342M |
| Enterprise Value | $257342M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 17.41 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.80 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 344.35% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.77% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.14 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $102.70 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $82.79 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $59.24 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $43.29 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $25.08 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $313.11 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Roche Holding AG's intrinsic value is $313.11, which is approximately 1.5% below the current market price of $318.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Roche Holding AG is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.