As of April 3, 2026, Roche Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $342.33 per share. With the current market price at $318.00, this represents a potential upside of 7.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $331.17 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $342.33 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 4.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 7.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $61516 million in 12-2025 to $90779 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 61516 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 64630 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 66822 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 68158 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 73221 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 74823 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 76885 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 78752 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 81478 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 85152 | 5% |
| 12-2035 | 90779 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 22% in 12-2025 to 23% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 13799 | 22% |
| 12-2026 | 14778 | 23% |
| 12-2027 | 15280 | 23% |
| 12-2028 | 15585 | 23% |
| 12-2029 | 16743 | 23% |
| 12-2030 | 17109 | 23% |
| 12-2031 | 17581 | 23% |
| 12-2032 | 18008 | 23% |
| 12-2033 | 18631 | 23% |
| 12-2034 | 19471 | 23% |
| 12-2035 | 20758 | 23% |
with a 5-year average of $5341 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 5421 |
| 12-2027 | 5534 |
| 12-2028 | 5648 |
| 12-2029 | 5768 |
| 12-2030 | 5325 |
| 12-2031 | 5513 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 45 |
| Days Inventory | 176 |
| Days Payables | 90 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23253 | 3054 | 4950 | 8703 | 6547 |
| 2027 | 23971 | 3157 | 5118 | (1,197) | 16893 |
| 2028 | 24454 | 3220 | 5220 | (1,698) | 17711 |
| 2029 | 25971 | 3460 | 5608 | 2627 | 14276 |
| 2030 | 25970 | 3535 | 5730 | (376) | 17080 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 331.17 | 4.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 342.33 | 7.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 249.87 | -21.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 287.90 | -9.5% |
Is Roche Holding AG (ROG.SW) a buy or a sell? Roche Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Roche Holding AG (ROG.SW) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 7.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $318.00.