What is RMS.PA's Intrinsic value?

Hermes International SCA (RMS.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of August 2, 2025, Hermes International SCA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $526.64 to $1240.33 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1240.33 -40.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1039.42 -50.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $892.74 -57.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $673.07 -67.6%
Earnings Power Value $526.64 -74.7%

Is Hermes International SCA (RMS.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2078.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Hermes International SCA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.93 0.97
Cost of equity 8.4% 10.6%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 28.5% 29.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.01 0.01
After-tax WACC 8.4% 10.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $15,170 (FY12-2024) to $34,197 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 30% to 36%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 6% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,039 $101,940M 77.9%
10-Year Growth $1,240 $123,150M 61.3%
5-Year EBITDA $934 $90,842M 75.3%
10-Year EBITDA $1,142 $112,740M 57.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 62.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $892.74 (-57.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.6% (Low) to 8.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $366 to $980
  • Selected fair value: $673.07 (-67.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $4,455M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.5% - 8.4%
Enterprise Value $42,267M - $53,344M
Net Debt $(7,792)M
Equity Value $50,059M - $61,136M
Outstanding Shares 106M
Fair Value $474 - $579
Selected Fair Value $526.64

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $219374M
Enterprise Value $211582M
Trailing P/E 48.96
Forward P/E 41.01
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.00
Current Dividend Yield 128.50%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 53.67%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $372.10
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $259.86
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $178.55
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $100.96
Earnings Power Value 10% $52.66
Weighted Average 100% $964.13

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Hermes International SCA's intrinsic value is $964.13, which is approximately 53.6% below the current market price of $2078.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (30% to 36% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.01)
  • Historical dividend growth of 53.67%

Given these factors, we believe Hermes International SCA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.