As of May 23, 2025, RM Secured Direct Lending PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $51.65 per share. With the current market price at $94.00, this represents a potential upside of -45.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $49.27 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $51.65 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -47.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -45.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.1% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5 million in 12-2020 to $7 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 5 | 54% |
| 12-2021 | 6 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 6 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 6 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 7 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 7 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 7 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 7 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 35% in 12-2020 to 48% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 2 | 35% |
| 12-2021 | 2 | 42% |
| 12-2022 | 2 | 43% |
| 12-2023 | 3 | 45% |
| 12-2024 | 3 | 46% |
| 12-2025 | 3 | 47% |
| 12-2026 | 3 | 47% |
| 12-2027 | 3 | 47% |
| 12-2028 | 3 | 48% |
| 12-2029 | 3 | 48% |
| 12-2030 | 3 | 48% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 0 |
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 0 |
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2022 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 49.27 | -47.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 51.65 | -45.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 18.12 | -80.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 25.06 | -73.3% |
Is RM Secured Direct Lending PLC (RMDL.L) a buy or a sell? RM Secured Direct Lending PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, RM Secured Direct Lending PLC (RMDL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -45.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $94.00.