As of July 4, 2025, Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $196.50 per share. With the current market price at $103.14, this represents a potential upside of 90.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $138.09 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $196.50 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 33.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 90.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 8.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2339 million in 12-2024 to $4873 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2339 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 2433 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 2558 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 2784 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 3081 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 3347 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 3524 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 3872 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 4106 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 4489 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 4873 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 12% in 12-2024 to 18% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 280 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 317 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 365 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 431 | 15% |
| 12-2028 | 513 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 596 | 18% |
| 12-2030 | 628 | 18% |
| 12-2031 | 690 | 18% |
| 12-2032 | 731 | 18% |
| 12-2033 | 800 | 18% |
| 12-2034 | 868 | 18% |
with a 5-year average of $208 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 250 |
| 12-2026 | 313 |
| 12-2027 | 362 |
| 12-2028 | 416 |
| 12-2029 | 437 |
| 12-2030 | 471 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 19 |
| Days Inventory | 4 |
| Days Payables | 13 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 595 | 16 | 281 | 25 | 274 |
| 2026 | 918 | 24 | 394 | (8) | 508 |
| 2027 | 1057 | 29 | 429 | 6 | 593 |
| 2028 | 1223 | 34 | 474 | 16 | 698 |
| 2029 | 1356 | 40 | 515 | 6 | 795 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 138.09 | 33.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 196.50 | 90.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 138.31 | 34.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 193.14 | 87.3% |
Is Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc (RHP) a buy or a sell? Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc (RHP) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 90.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $103.14.