As of May 24, 2025, Regional REIT Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $196.08 per share. With the current market price at $113.20, this represents a potential upside of 73.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $180.40 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $196.08 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 59.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 73.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $46 million in 12-2024 to $52 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 46 | 14% |
| 12-2025 | 56 | 23% |
| 12-2026 | 58 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 44 | -25% |
| 12-2028 | 45 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 47 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 48 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 49 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 50 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 51 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 52 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -86% in 12-2024 to -86% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (40) | -86% |
| 12-2025 | (48) | -86% |
| 12-2026 | (50) | -86% |
| 12-2027 | (38) | -86% |
| 12-2028 | (38) | -86% |
| 12-2029 | (40) | -86% |
| 12-2030 | (41) | -86% |
| 12-2031 | (42) | -86% |
| 12-2032 | (43) | -86% |
| 12-2033 | (44) | -86% |
| 12-2034 | (44) | -86% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
| 12-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 59 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 256 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44 | (0) | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| 2026 | 46 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| 2027 | 34 | (0) | 0 | (2) | 36 |
| 2028 | 35 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 35 |
| 2029 | 37 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 180.40 | 59.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 196.08 | 73.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 133.26 | 17.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 161.78 | 42.9% |
Is Regional REIT Ltd (RGL.L) a buy or a sell? Regional REIT Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Regional REIT Ltd (RGL.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 73.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $113.20.