As of December 15, 2025, Repligen Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $6.38 per share. With the current market price at $157.39, this represents a potential upside of -95.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $6.38 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -104.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -95.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $634 million in 12-2024 to $1736 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 634 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 723 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 823 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 930 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 1029 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 1142 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 1244 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 1349 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 1478 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 1602 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 1736 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -4% in 12-2024 to 8% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (26) | -4% |
| 12-2025 | (11) | -2% |
| 12-2026 | 4 | 1% |
| 12-2027 | 22 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 43 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 68 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 78 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 89 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 102 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 116 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 131 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $51 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 57 |
| 12-2026 | 56 |
| 12-2027 | 53 |
| 12-2028 | 62 |
| 12-2029 | 74 |
| 12-2030 | 82 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 67 |
| Days Inventory | 215 |
| Days Payables | 29 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 7 | (0) | 14 | 15 | (22) |
| 2026 | 44 | 1 | 65 | 31 | (53) |
| 2027 | 60 | 4 | 74 | 23 | (40) |
| 2028 | 91 | 8 | 82 | 37 | (35) |
| 2029 | 130 | 12 | 91 | 31 | (4) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -104.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.38 | -95.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 23.62 | -85.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 36.40 | -76.9% |
Is Repligen Corp (RGEN) a buy or a sell? Repligen Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Repligen Corp (RGEN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -95.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $157.39.