What is REGN's Intrinsic value?

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (REGN) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 20, 2025, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $361.30 to $726.13 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $708.46 +37.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $597.83 +16.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $590.41 +15.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $726.13 +41.4%
Earnings Power Value $361.30 -29.7%

Is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (REGN) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $513.58, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1 1.09
Cost of equity 8.5% 11.0%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 7.8% 9.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.05 0.05
After-tax WACC 8.2% 10.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $14,202 (FY12-2024) to $25,719 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 31% to 34%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 7% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $598 $64,162M 76.7%
10-Year Growth $708 $76,107M 62.0%
5-Year EBITDA $531 $56,971M 73.8%
10-Year EBITDA $643 $69,051M 58.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 2.1%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $590.41 (15.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.0% (Low) to 8.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $367 to $1,086
  • Selected fair value: $726.13 (41.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $3,588M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.6% - 8.2%
Enterprise Value $33,707M - $43,541M
Net Debt $(385)M
Equity Value $34,093M - $43,926M
Outstanding Shares 108M
Fair Value $316 - $407
Selected Fair Value $361.30

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $55451M
Enterprise Value $55066M
Trailing P/E 12.32
Forward P/E 12.82
Trailing EV/EBITDA 10.45
Current Dividend Yield 16.42%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.05

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $212.54
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $149.46
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $118.08
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $108.92
Earnings Power Value 10% $36.13
Weighted Average 100% $625.13

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $625.13, which is approximately 21.7% above the current market price of $513.58.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (31% to 34% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.05)

Given these factors, we believe Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.