What is READ.ST's Intrinsic value?

Readly International AB (publ) (READ.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 16, 2025, Readly International AB (publ)'s estimated intrinsic value ranges from $19.63 to $41.27 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $41.27 +55.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $19.63 -25.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $20.96 -20.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $41.26 +55.7%
Earnings Power Value $35.09 +32.4%

Is Readly International AB (publ) (READ.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $26.50, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Readly International AB (publ)'s intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.5% 3.0%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.58 0.77
Cost of equity 5.5% 8.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 6.6%
Tax rate 0.9% 2.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0 0
After-tax WACC 5.5% 8.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $722 (FY12-2024) to $3,367 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 14% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $20 $1,079M 84.0%
10-Year Growth $41 $2,382M 74.6%
5-Year EBITDA $22 $1,201M 85.6%
10-Year EBITDA $42 $2,403M 74.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 61.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $20.96 (-20.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.2% (Low) to 5.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $17 to $65
  • Selected fair value: $41.26 (55.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $132M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.2% - 5.5%
Enterprise Value $1,601M - $2,417M
Net Debt $(103)M
Equity Value $1,704M - $2,520M
Outstanding Shares 60M
Fair Value $28 - $42
Selected Fair Value $35.09

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1595M
Enterprise Value $1492M
Trailing P/E 14.87
Forward P/E 91.28
Trailing EV/EBITDA 12.30
Current Dividend Yield 415.80%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.00

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $12.38
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $4.91
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $4.19
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $6.19
Earnings Power Value 10% $3.51
Weighted Average 100% $31.18

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Readly International AB (publ)'s weighted average intrinsic value is $31.18, which is approximately 17.7% above the current market price of $26.50.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (14% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.00)

Given these factors, we believe Readly International AB (publ) is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.