As of June 10, 2025, Radpol SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $1.36 per share. With the current market price at $1.93, this represents a potential upside of -29.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $1.05 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $1.36 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -45.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -29.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.7% - 11.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $133 million in 12-2020 to $291 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 133 | 10% |
| 12-2021 | 161 | 21% |
| 12-2022 | 174 | 8% |
| 12-2023 | 189 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 200 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 218 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 226 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 239 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 254 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 267 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 291 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2020 to 5% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 7 | 5% |
| 12-2021 | 9 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 9 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 10 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 11 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 12 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 12 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 13 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 13 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 14 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 15 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 5 |
| 12-2022 | 6 |
| 12-2023 | 5 |
| 12-2024 | 5 |
| 12-2025 | 6 |
| 12-2026 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 70 |
| Days Inventory | 84 |
| Days Payables | 69 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2021 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2022 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 2023 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 2024 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2025 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.05 | -45.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.36 | -29.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.57 | -18.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.74 | -10.0% |
Is Radpol SA (RDL.WA) a buy or a sell? Radpol SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Radpol SA (RDL.WA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -29.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.93.