What is RCDO.L's Intrinsic value?

Ricardo PLC (RCDO.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Ricardo PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $470.14 to $876.44 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $876.44 +103.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $621.78 +44.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $470.14 +9.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $731.71 +70.2%
Earnings Power Value $830.89 +93.2%

Is Ricardo PLC (RCDO.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $430.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ricardo PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.57 0.62
Cost of equity 7.4% 9.3%
Cost of debt 4.7% 6.2%
Tax rate 19.0% 19.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.49 0.49
After-tax WACC 6.2% 7.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $475 (FY06-2024) to $613 (FY06-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 0% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $622 $426M 83.1%
10-Year Growth $876 $584M 68.3%
5-Year EBITDA $597 $410M 82.4%
10-Year EBITDA $778 $523M 64.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 24.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $470.14 (9.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.3% (Low) to 7.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $425 to $1,039
  • Selected fair value: $731.71 (70.2% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $39M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.9% - 6.2%
Enterprise Value $488M - $623M
Net Debt $39M
Equity Value $449M - $584M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $722 - $939
Selected Fair Value $830.89

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $268M
Enterprise Value $306M
Trailing P/E 8.52
Forward P/E 37.49
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.05
Current Dividend Yield 291.57%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -9.74%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.49

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $262.93
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $155.45
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $94.03
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $109.76
Earnings Power Value 10% $83.09
Weighted Average 100% $705.25

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ricardo PLC's intrinsic value is $705.25, which is approximately 64.0% above the current market price of $430.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (0% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Ricardo PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.