What is RBX.V's Intrinsic value?

Robex Resources Inc (RBX.V) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 16, 2025, Robex Resources Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.25 to $43.75 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $14.48 +334.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $43.75 +1213.7%
Earnings Power Value $2.25 -32.4%

Is Robex Resources Inc (RBX.V) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $3.33, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Robex Resources Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.4 0.46
Cost of equity 5.9% 7.7%
Cost of debt 7.5% 9.3%
Tax rate 21.0% 35.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.06 0.06
After-tax WACC 5.9% 7.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $158 (FY12-2024) to $9,941 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -8% to 24%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 37% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $(1,234) $(1,141)M 92.4%
10-Year Growth $14 $2,434M 98.5%
5-Year EBITDA $7 $1,230M 107.0%
10-Year EBITDA $40 $6,718M 99.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $43.75 (1213.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.7% (Low) to 5.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(4) to $(24)
  • Selected fair value: $-13.96 (-519.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $25M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.6% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $327M - $420M
Net Debt $(6)M
Equity Value $332M - $426M
Outstanding Shares 168M
Fair Value $2 - $3
Selected Fair Value $2.25

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $561M
Enterprise Value $555M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 30.89
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.65
Current Dividend Yield 28.11%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -54.10%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.06

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 50% $4.34
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 33% $8.75
Earnings Power Value 17% $0.22
Weighted Average 100% $22.20

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Robex Resources Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $22.20, which is approximately 566.5% above the current market price of $3.33.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-8% to 24% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.06)

Given these factors, we believe Robex Resources Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.