As of June 7, 2025, Raven Property Group Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.20 to $138.10 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $138.10 | +3515.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $123.48 | +3132.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $0.20 | -94.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $22.90 | +499.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $39.14 | +924.5% |
Is Raven Property Group Ltd (RAV.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $3.82, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Raven Property Group Ltd's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.91 | 4.12 |
| Cost of equity | 13.2% | 30.1% |
| Cost of debt | 5.5% | 8.9% |
| Tax rate | 33.8% | 48.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 23.2 | 23.2 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.0% | 5.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $123 | $2,101M | 82.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $138 | $2,246M | 67.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $102 | $1,890M | 80.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $120 | $2,062M | 64.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $59M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.7% - 4.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,047M - $1,476M |
| Net Debt | $872M |
| Equity Value | $175M - $604M |
| Outstanding Shares | 10M |
| Fair Value | $18 - $61 |
| Selected Fair Value | $39.14 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $38M |
| Enterprise Value | $910M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.81 |
| Forward P/E | 91.75 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 20.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 12923.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 13.52% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 23.20 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $41.43 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $30.87 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.04 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.44 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.91 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $79.69 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Raven Property Group Ltd's weighted average intrinsic value is $79.69, which is approximately 1986.2% above the current market price of $3.82.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Raven Property Group Ltd is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.