What is RAT.L's Intrinsic value?

Rathbone Brothers PLC (RAT.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Rathbone Brothers PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $941.99 to $3521.95 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1688.20 +4.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1096.52 -32.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $941.99 -42.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $965.92 -40.5%
Earnings Power Value $3521.95 +116.9%

Is Rathbone Brothers PLC (RAT.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1624.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Rathbone Brothers PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.78 1.23
Cost of equity 8.6% 13.6%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.6%
Tax rate 30.0% 34.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.43 1.43
After-tax WACC 5.2% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,014 (FY12-2024) to $1,993 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 6% to 8%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,097 $2,429M 91.2%
10-Year Growth $1,688 $3,052M 81.0%
5-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $970M 78.0%
10-Year EBITDA $160 $1,443M 59.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 86.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $941.99 (-42.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.6% (Low) to 8.6% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $411 to $1,520
  • Selected fair value: $965.92 (-40.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $322M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 5.2%
Enterprise Value $3,778M - $6,186M
Net Debt $1,275M
Equity Value $2,504M - $4,911M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $2,378 - $4,666
Selected Fair Value $3521.95

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1709M
Enterprise Value $2984M
Trailing P/E 26.10
Forward P/E 26.17
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.85
Current Dividend Yield 332.85%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 10.74%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.43

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $506.46
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $274.13
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $188.40
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $144.89
Earnings Power Value 10% $352.20
Weighted Average 100% $1466.07

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Rathbone Brothers PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1466.07, which is approximately 9.7% below the current market price of $1624.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (6% to 8% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 10.74%

Given these factors, we believe Rathbone Brothers PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.