As of September 18, 2025, Ferrari NV has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $299.84 per share. With the current market price at $395.70, this represents a potential upside of -24.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $209.04 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $299.84 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -47.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -24.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 10.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6677 million in 12-2024 to $17111 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 6677 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 7253 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 8201 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 9568 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 10394 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 11516 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 12354 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 13524 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 14707 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 16044 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 17111 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 23% in 12-2024 to 33% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1526 | 23% |
| 12-2025 | 1785 | 25% |
| 12-2026 | 2173 | 27% |
| 12-2027 | 2708 | 28% |
| 12-2028 | 3119 | 30% |
| 12-2029 | 3643 | 32% |
| 12-2030 | 3946 | 32% |
| 12-2031 | 4361 | 32% |
| 12-2032 | 4787 | 33% |
| 12-2033 | 5270 | 33% |
| 12-2034 | 5672 | 33% |
with a 5-year average of $822 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 17% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 920 |
| 12-2026 | 1045 |
| 12-2027 | 1201 |
| 12-2028 | 1372 |
| 12-2029 | 1556 |
| 12-2030 | 1726 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 111 |
| Days Inventory | 109 |
| Days Payables | 114 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 1571 | 224 | 601 | (0) | 746 |
| 2026 | 3752 | 545 | 1360 | 327 | 1520 |
| 2027 | 4575 | 680 | 1587 | 451 | 1858 |
| 2028 | 5260 | 783 | 1724 | 207 | 2547 |
| 2029 | 6097 | 914 | 1910 | 352 | 2921 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 209.04 | -47.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 299.84 | -24.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 132.65 | -66.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 197.43 | -50.1% |
Is Ferrari NV (RACE.MI) a buy or a sell? Ferrari NV is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Ferrari NV (RACE.MI) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -24.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $395.70.