As of May 27, 2025, Ryder System Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $355.36 per share. With the current market price at $149.28, this represents a potential upside of 138.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $206.24 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $355.36 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 38.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 138.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.3% - 6.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $12636 million in 12-2024 to $25072 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 12636 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 13365 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 14181 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 15489 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 16982 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 18554 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 19609 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 21330 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 22271 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 23878 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 25072 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 4% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 489 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 496 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 526 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 575 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 630 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 689 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 728 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 792 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 827 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 886 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 931 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $2327 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 21% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2655 |
| 12-2026 | 2859 |
| 12-2027 | 2979 |
| 12-2028 | 3040 |
| 12-2029 | 3278 |
| 12-2030 | 3538 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 52 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 42 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3763 | 203 | 2788 | (17) | 789 |
| 2026 | 4034 | 215 | 2958 | 72 | 789 |
| 2027 | 4262 | 235 | 3231 | 123 | 673 |
| 2028 | 4447 | 258 | 3542 | 96 | 551 |
| 2029 | 4815 | 282 | 3870 | 127 | 536 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 206.24 | 38.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 355.36 | 138.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 459.44 | 207.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 575.04 | 285.2% |
Is Ryder System Inc (R) a buy or a sell? Ryder System Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ryder System Inc (R) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 138.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $149.28.