As of May 23, 2025, Qualcomm Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $228.13 per share. With the current market price at $147.37, this represents a potential upside of 54.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $178.55 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $228.13 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 21.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 54.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.1% - 11.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $38962 million in 09-2024 to $84274 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 38962 | 9% |
| 09-2025 | 43147 | 11% |
| 09-2026 | 46958 | 9% |
| 09-2027 | 51464 | 10% |
| 09-2028 | 56319 | 9% |
| 09-2029 | 61505 | 9% |
| 09-2030 | 66686 | 8% |
| 09-2031 | 72847 | 9% |
| 09-2032 | 76439 | 5% |
| 09-2033 | 80261 | 5% |
| 09-2034 | 84274 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 26% in 09-2024 to 35% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 10110 | 26% |
| 09-2025 | 11262 | 26% |
| 09-2026 | 13144 | 28% |
| 09-2027 | 15330 | 30% |
| 09-2028 | 17737 | 31% |
| 09-2029 | 20367 | 33% |
| 09-2030 | 22288 | 33% |
| 09-2031 | 24569 | 34% |
| 09-2032 | 26012 | 34% |
| 09-2033 | 27552 | 34% |
| 09-2034 | 29179 | 35% |
with a 5-year average of $1610 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 1741 |
| 09-2026 | 1813 |
| 09-2027 | 1854 |
| 09-2028 | 2103 |
| 09-2029 | 2484 |
| 09-2030 | 2709 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 25 |
| Days Inventory | 136 |
| Days Payables | 58 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 6864 | 564 | 1033 | 337 | 4929 |
| 2026 | 15835 | 1317 | 2248 | 491 | 11779 |
| 2027 | 18238 | 1537 | 2464 | 313 | 13925 |
| 2028 | 21090 | 1778 | 2696 | 561 | 16055 |
| 2029 | 24316 | 2041 | 2944 | 499 | 18831 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 178.55 | 21.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 228.13 | 54.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 236.82 | 60.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 279.98 | 90.0% |
Is Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) a buy or a sell? Qualcomm Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 54.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $147.37.