What is PXS.L's DCF valuation?

Provexis PLC (PXS.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of October 15, 2025, Provexis PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.62, this represents a potential upside of -265.4%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -233.8%
Potential Upside (10-year) -265.4%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.4% - 7.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $1 million in 03-2024 to $2 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
03-2024 1 106%
03-2025 1 12%
03-2026 1 2%
03-2027 1 5%
03-2028 1 5%
03-2029 1 8%
03-2030 1 10%
03-2031 1 7%
03-2032 1 5%
03-2033 1 7%
03-2034 2 10%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -73% in 03-2024 to -47% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
03-2024 (1) -73%
03-2025 (1) -52%
03-2026 (1) -51%
03-2027 (1) -51%
03-2028 (1) -51%
03-2029 (1) -49%
03-2030 (1) -49%
03-2031 (1) -48%
03-2032 (1) -48%
03-2033 (1) -47%
03-2034 (1) -47%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
03-2025 0
03-2026 0
03-2027 0
03-2028 0
03-2029 0
03-2030 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 5
Days Inventory 676
Days Payables 95

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2025 (0) (0) 0 0 (1)
2026 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2027 (1) (0) 0 (0) (0)
2028 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2029 (1) (0) 0 (0) (1)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.4% - 7.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 8.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -233.8%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -265.4%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(20)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(24)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Provexis PLC (PXS.L) a buy or a sell? Provexis PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Provexis PLC (PXS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -265.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -73% to -47%)
  • Steady revenue growth (7.2% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.62.