As of May 29, 2025, Pioneer Natural Resources Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $239.31 to $351.22 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $292.12 | +8.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $288.20 | +6.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $239.31 | -11.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $300.10 | +11.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $351.22 | +30.3% |
Is Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $269.62, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Pioneer Natural Resources Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.77 | 0.84 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 22.4% | 23.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.1% | 9.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $288 | $71,925M | 74.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $292 | $72,840M | 55.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $186 | $47,958M | 61.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $217 | $55,182M | 40.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $6,888M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.1% - 7.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $75,693M - $97,601M |
| Net Debt | $4,595M |
| Equity Value | $71,098M - $93,006M |
| Outstanding Shares | 234M |
| Fair Value | $304 - $398 |
| Selected Fair Value | $351.22 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $62989M |
| Enterprise Value | $67584M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.87 |
| Forward P/E | 15.10 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 523.75% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 125.76% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.08 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $87.64 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $72.05 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $47.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $45.02 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $35.12 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $287.69 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Pioneer Natural Resources Co's weighted average intrinsic value is $287.69, which is approximately 6.7% above the current market price of $269.62.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Pioneer Natural Resources Co is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.