What is PWR's Intrinsic value?

Quanta Services Inc (PWR) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 17, 2025, Quanta Services Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $52.71 to $602.85 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $602.85 +66.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $369.12 +2.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $324.96 -10.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $76.12 -79.0%
Earnings Power Value $52.71 -85.4%

Is Quanta Services Inc (PWR) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $361.80, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Quanta Services Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.27 1.37
Cost of equity 9.7% 12.6%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.9%
Tax rate 22.0% 23.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.08 0.08
After-tax WACC 9.2% 11.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $23,673 (FY12-2024) to $56,961 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 4% to 21%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $369 $58,617M 76.8%
10-Year Growth $603 $93,255M 61.4%
5-Year EBITDA $517 $80,587M 83.1%
10-Year EBITDA $741 $113,724M 68.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 6.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $324.96 (-10.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.6% (Low) to 9.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $44 to $109
  • Selected fair value: $76.12 (-79.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,220M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.9% - 9.2%
Enterprise Value $10,231M - $13,219M
Net Debt $3,913M
Equity Value $6,317M - $9,306M
Outstanding Shares 148M
Fair Value $43 - $63
Selected Fair Value $52.71

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $53619M
Enterprise Value $57532M
Trailing P/E 57.61
Forward P/E 27.47
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.10
Current Dividend Yield 10.53%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 17.03%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.08

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $180.85
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $92.28
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $64.99
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $11.42
Earnings Power Value 10% $5.27
Weighted Average 100% $354.81

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Quanta Services Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $354.81, which is approximately 1.9% below the current market price of $361.80.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (4% to 21% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.08)
  • Historical dividend growth of 17.03%

Given these factors, we believe Quanta Services Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.